As much as the passion and athletic prowess is alluring to most, one of the primary reasons is statistics. Ever since the audience of Fantasy Football League chanted 'Statto, Statto' at Angus Loughran, the stat fan has been recognised, if not wholly appreciated. Some sports lend themselves to stat geekery more than others - cricket and baseball can be broken down into individual balls, and so the stats can get quite ridiculous sometimes (want to know how Pitcher A performs against right-handed batters, with one runner, in the last 3 innings, at nighttime? In baseball, you can find out - seriously).
Football, given its structure (90 minutes of flowing action) doesn't exactly lend itself to statistical analysis. Does that mean it can't be done? Of course not. Once upon a time, all that mattered about a player was how many goals he could score, but things have spiralled to the point that UEFA Champions League broadcasts tell us how far a subbed player has run (an AFC Champions League broadcast even further divided the running into 'Run', 'Jog' and 'Sprint'). Managers, too, use things like ProZone to figure out every aspect of a player's abilities - and don't think the players ignore it, either. Finally, the effect of games like Championship/Football Manager on the typical fan can't be underestimated.
Well, the World Cup is heading to South Africa on Friday, and stats are more accepted in the game than ever before. So it's time that we at the Acceptable Geek Club did our bit for the cause. Most of you probably don't know too much about all of the teams in the finals, so we've gone to the trouble of using the Elo Ratings system (an alternative to FIFA's official ranking - and, we think, more effective) to show you the relative strengths of all 32 teams going into the tournament.
Starting from the day after the last World Cup final, we've jotted down the Elo rating of each team as they've played each match. We then took this information and put it in a colourful graph for you to look at. Some teams have played more than others, so don't treat the four teams in each group as being chronologically matched on the graph. Nevertheless, it should give you a good idea of how things have progressed for all teams, and how they find themselves going into the tournament. We'll return to this at each of the ensuing rounds also, just to give you the statorific rundown as it happens.
Group A
We start with the hapless hosts, who have to cope with the likes of Mexico, Uruguay and France. You'll see a recurring theme here: three closely-matched teams in for a real fight, and a hopeless loser. Sadly, the Bafana Bafana are that loser.
SOUTH AFRICA
High: 1569 (2010/05/31)
Low: 1443 (2006/09/02)
Biggest rise: 31 (Zambia 1-0 Away, ACN Qualifier, 2006/10/08)
Biggest fall: 36 (Zambia 1-3 Home, ACN Qualifier, 2007/09/09)
You could argue that South Africa have risen slowly but surely since the end of the last World Cup (which, obviously, they didn't compete in) and are now in their best shape for a long time. However, this is a shadow of the team that qualified in 1998 and 2002, and despite their gradual rise, they're still a long way behind the rivals in their group, or any group: they're one of the lowest-ranked teams in the tournament. If there's a World Cup where the host nation don't get past the first round, this is it.
MEXICO
High: 1904 (2007/07/08)
Low: 1745 (2009/06/06 & 2009/07/09)
Biggest rise: 76 (USA 5-0 Away, Concacaf Gold Cup, 2009/07/26)
Biggest fall: 38 (Honduras 1-2 Neutral, Concacaf Gold Cup, 2007/06/10)
The perennial dark horses have had a very bumpy ride since losing to that Maxi Rodríguez goal in Germany, going from losing the Gold Cup final to the USA, to bashing Brazil in the Copa América just three days later. As the graph shows, they've gone from that heady height downwards, only to destroy the Americans at the following Gold Cup final. That one result may have skewed the graph a little as they are now rated higher than the rest of the group, but there's no doubt that they're as good as their two rivals.
URUGUAY
High: 1842 (2007/06/02)
Low: 1765 (2009/09/05)
Biggest rise: 40 (Venezuela 4-1 Away, Copa América, 2007/07/07)
Biggest fall: 69 (Peru 0-3 Neutral, Copa América, 2007/06/27)
Having missed out on the World Cup last time thanks to those plucky Aussies, Uruguay are in a group that they can escape - with some difficulty. In the four years since the last one, they haven't really changed much, which isn't too surprising as the only difference with qualification this time is that they didn't lose their intercontinental play-off, against Costa Rica. We'll just have to see how it goes.
FRANCE
High: 2066 (2006/09/06)
Low: 1835 (2010/06/04)
Biggest rise: 19 (Ireland 1-0 Away, WC Qualifier, 2009/11/14)
Biggest fall: 48 (Austria 1-3 Away, WC Qualifier, 2008/09/06)
Irish moaning aside, France have got their hands full this time (sorry). Unsurprisingly, they finished the last World Cup as the 2nd-ranked side under Elo ratings, but their fall since then has been catastrophic, with Raymond Domenech's survival in the job nothing short of miraculous. Their European Championship was awful (1 point, 1 goal, 6 conceded), and the fact that it took a play-off with a highly-dubious goal to send them to South Africa says all you need to know. They're now at their lowest Elo rating since the 1980s - and that's a worry.
Prediction: MEXICO & URUGUAY QUALIFY
Group B
Once again, it's a tough group, but this time we have a clear favourite, with three others fighting for the other spot. Could be a very tight one.
ARGENTINA
High: 2058 (2007/07/11)
Low: 1846 (2009/09/09)
Biggest rise: 29 (Mexico 3-0 Neutral, Copa América, 2007/07/11)
Biggest fall: 69 (Bolivia 1-6 Away, WC Qualifier, 2009/04/01)
We've all seen and heard Diego's foul-mouthed reign as Argentina's bumbling boss, and it could very well have all gone tits up, but they hung on to qualify again. Given that they walked into the 2007 Copa América final as the highest-rated team in the world, their fall is rather dramatic. Still, in this group, they should get through. How much further, we cannot say.
NIGERIA
High: 1778 (2006/10/08)
Low: 1676 (2010/01/28)
Biggest rise: 17 (Algeria 1-0 Neutral, CAF Africa Cup of Nations, 2010/01/30)
Biggest fall: 42 (Egypt 1-3 Neutral, CAF Africa Cup of Nations, 2010/01/12)
Nigeria are one of Africa's hopes for the tournament, since we all know how much of a caning the hosts will receive. But Nigeria haven't been a good team for a long time, and have been getting progressively worse in the last four years (they didn't qualify last time round). The chance of escaping this group are slim, even with Africa on their side.
SOUTH KOREA
High: 1766 (2010/05/24)
Low: 1612 (2007/07/15)
Biggest rise: 44 (Japan 3-1 Away, East Asian Championship, 2010/02/14)
Biggest fall: 51 (China 0-3 Neutral, East Asian Championship, 2010/02/10)
They go into this year's tournament as the best team in Asia, but that's still only average compared to Europe and South America. They've made good progress since last time, and go into the group stage in good form, and as good as the team in 2002. Whether they can cope in Africa remains to be seen.
GREECE
High: 1838 (2008/05/19)
Low: 1711 (2010/06/02)
Biggest rise: 28 (Ukraine 1-0 Away, WC Qualifier, 2009/11/18)
Biggest fall: 45 (Turkey 1-4 Home, EC Qualifier, 2007/03/24)
The Greeks walk into this tournament in perhaps the worst shape since they famously lifted the European Championship back in 2004. After losing all three games in Euro 2008, they've been in freefall. They squeaked into the World Cup thanks to Ukraine's lack of bottle, and have a challenge to not finish bottom.
Prediction: ARGENTINA & SOUTH KOREA QUALIFY
That's all for today. Join us tomorrow for Groups C and D. Yes, that includes England.
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