Geekin' about sport: Second Round (Part 2)

We return with a look at the other side of the knockout draw for the World Cup.

GROUP 3 - WINNERS B & D, RUNNERS-UP A & C


ARGENTINA
The only team to be really flawless in the group stage, they have great strength in depth. All of the controversy over Maradona's management and their wobbly qualification seems to have disappeared. Then again, the Dutch looked similarly indestructible two years ago. Have they peaked too early?

GERMANY
Pretty Jekyll & Hyde stuff from the Germans: explosive against Australia, limp against Serbia and average against Ghana. They've certainly got enough great players to make it to the latter stages, but the group stage suggests that there is a way to stop them, and should anyone figure it out, the Germans will be in big trouble.

MEXICO
Mexico were thoroughly unspectacular in escaping their rather average group: they did well not to lose on the opening night, and made light work of a disintegrating France side before having little heart to really trouble Uruguay, given that they were almost guaranteed passage.

ENGLAND
Their turnaround wasn't quite as spectacular as Slovakia's, but then again expectations were much higher for the Three Lions. Two desperately poor games against less-than-special opposition brought serious criticism, but a much improved performance in the final game saw them finish the group with only one goal conceded, a freak error. Momentum is crucial for a good run in a very tough group.

ARGENTINA vs MEXICO
El Tri have exited at the Second Round at the last four World Cups. Now they're playing the same team that beat them last time, but now they seem unstoppable. Ah, damn it.
ARGENTINA WIN

GERMANY vs ENGLAND
Ugh... we don't want to call it. But we'll go for England. Why not? It has to happen eventually. Whether it's on penalties or not is another matter.
ENGLAND WIN

POTENTIAL QF: ARGENTINA vs ENGLAND
If England can actually get past the Germans, they'll have a real job getting past the Argies. Time to be realistic.
ARGENTINA WIN

GROUP 4 - WINNERS F & H, RUNNERS-UP E & G


PARAGUAY
They lazily ambled through their group, clearly not in any danger having drawn a poor group, especially with the collapse of Italy. The term 'dark horses' is used in every tournament, and these guys could be the ones.

SPAIN
There was a rude awakening in their opening match, but they found their feet afterwards, but have yet to look as magnificent as they did when they won in Europe two years ago. They can still do it, though.

JAPAN
Only the Japanese coach thought they'd make good progress through the competition, but they've surprised everyone else with some very confident performances, and could be a real surprise package. Of course, they won't be underestimated now.

PORTUGAL
Don't let the demolition of North Korea fool you: Portugal, with 0-0 draws against their other two opponents, have been very flat. Thankfully, Ronaldo has shown effort and promise, but few others have done so.

PARAGUAY vs JAPAN
A very tough call: Japan have improved with each game, Paraguay haven't really shown their full potential. We'll go for a tight Paraguay win.
PARAGUAY WIN

SPAIN vs PORTUGAL
Portugal haven't look all that special, and although Spain had a scare against the Swiss, they've looked a lot more solid. The Spanish should get through this Iberian derby, but it won't be a walkover.
SPAIN WIN

POTENTIAL QF: PARAGUAY vs SPAIN
Paraguay will do very well to make the Quarter-Finals, but Spain should be hitting their stride by this point.
SPAIN WIN

And that's all for now. See you for the Semi Finals.

Geekin' about sport: Second Round

After 3/4 of the matches, we're back again for the winner-takes-all stuff.

Now that we're in the knockouts, the draw essentially divides into groups again. So, on one side, the winners of Groups A, C, E and G join up with the runners-up from Groups B, D, F and H, and these eight teams fight their way to the final. There is a further group of four, as the teams from Groups A, B, C and D play together, as do the ones from E, F, G and H. As a result, we'll continue our graph-related coverage with the four new "Second Round/Quarter Finals" groups that have emerged, to see who can come out on top of those to progress to the Semi Finals.

The winners of our notional Groups 1 and 2 will face off in the Semi Finals, as will the winners of Groups 3 and 4. We'll return for the semis to evaluate the last four teams.

GROUP 1 - WINNERS A & C, RUNNERS-UP B & D


URUGUAY
The South Americans looked pretty comfortable in their three games, though it wasn't the most difficult group by any stretch. They seemed a little overcautious against a French side they could have certainly beaten, but against the other two they were never really in any danger.

USA
They've certainly looked far from their best, though they've also been very unlucky with a few refereeing decisions, notably the disallowed goal that would've given them a win against Slovenia. However, they ended the group on top, so all that is forgotten. They will, however, need a serious improvement to make it much further.

SOUTH KOREA
Their group ended up rather tight, but the Koreans had the strength to get past their two other real rivals. After winning their first game at a foreign World Cup four years ago, they've achieved their first Second Round appearance on foreign soil, too. They'll just be happy to be there.

GHANA
The only African team to look at least reasonably good, their three low-scoring games gave little away. It's difficult to see how well the Black Stars will cope in the knock-out stage, but they'll certainly be difficult to break down. In this group, the Semis look unlikely, but it's too close to call.

URUGUAY vs SOUTH KOREA
The Koreans have energy and good attacking prowess, but Uruguay have a rock-solid defence, while Korea's defensive frailties have been exposed by worse teams than La Celeste. Uruguay are brimming with confidence, and they should be able to break down South Korea with few problems.
URUGUAY WIN

USA vs GHANA
Neither team was thoroughly convincing in the groups, but neither of them looked terribly bad, either. They're very evenly matched, and picking a winner is hard. We'll go with the States, as they seemed to have more fight in them in the group stage.
USA WIN

POTENTIAL QF: URUGUAY vs USA
Unless the USA either get lucky or find a real spark, they'll struggle against a very tough Uruguay side.
URUGUAY WIN

GROUP 2 - WINNERS E & G, RUNNERS-UP F & H


NETHERLANDS
Three wins, but hardly fantastic performances. Nothing wrong with that, of course: if they're saving their best for the knockouts (and Arjen Robben's back from injury) then that's for the best. We'll just have to see how much they can improve, though they're arguably in the easier side of the draw.

BRAZIL
They're the highest-rated team in the world, but let's be honest, they've had a slow start. It seemed like they were running on low power against North Korea and Côte d'Ivoire and were practically dead against Portugal. Like the Netherlands, perhaps they're just biding their time to unleash their power in the latter stages. We shall see.

SLOVAKIA
Shock winners over Italy to reach the Second Round, Slovakia looked rather poor in their first two before that famous and thoroughly deserved win. If Slovakia can maintain their momentum, they could cause yet more upsets. Seriously, though, they're in a nightmare group now, so we'll leave them as 'underdogs'.

CHILE
Came into the tournament quietly confident of success, and results suggest a low-scoring but ultimately solid side.

NETHERLANDS vs SLOVAKIA
The Slovaks should not be underestimated after brushing Italy aside, but there's a big difference between Italy and the Netherlands right now. The Dutch are heating up, and it looks like Slovakia will get burnt.
NETHERLANDS WIN

BRAZIL vs CHILE
To the uninitiated, this seems like an easy guess, but after seeing the Seleção saunter through their group, one suspects they may be caught unawares. They shouldn't: Chile finished one point behind them in qualifying, though it's worth pointing out Brazil thrashed them twice. Chile could certainly do something, but we're going for Brazil.
BRAZIL WIN

POTENTIAL QF: NETHERLANDS vs BRAZIL
What a match this could be. Two of the tournament favourites as early as the Quarter Finals. If Robben hits his stride, the Dutch can make the Semis.
NETHERLANDS WIN

So, that's the first half of the draw taken care of. Come back tomorrow for the second half.

What's in a t-shirt?

If there is a causal link between geekdom and fashion the band T-shirt is it – preferably black, preferably quirky and perhaps a little too tight. Every geek, even the most acceptable, has one and most can, to some extent, pull it off. Though the Acceptable Geek Club deplores them being the only thing in one’s wardrobe, they have a time and a place and, if one can locate that correctly, can be pretty damn cool.

Though the Acceptable Geek Club likes band T-shirts (particularly one’s bearing images of The Stone Roses or The Smiths) it is perplexed by one’s motivations for wearing them. Geeks were up in arms when the Ramones and Rolling Stones logos began covering the Top Shop clad chests of teenage girls several years ago so why is it different when someone who knows the first 5 digits of ∏ does it? The obvious claim is an epistemic one:

1. Knowing about band x and owning their albums entitles you to wear their logo/album cover on your chest.
   


2. Failing to know about band x yet wearing their logo/album cover on your chest means you are a dangerous fraud subject to the whims of the global fashion industry and/or capitalism
   


3. Hence, only geeks should wear band T-shirts.

There is no room for ironic subversions of classic art or just wearing it because it looks nice here.

The knowledge argument outlined above is an appealing one, but it does not get to the heart of the matter. Why do geeks choose to wear the marks of their sins? Even the Acceptable Geek Club, which aims to celebrate geekery without ramming it down the wider public’s throats, has an attraction to these items that it does not regret. It is, however, concerned about where the desire to wear it’s old Nevermind hoody comes from.

As a teenage geek, the motivation was clear. Finding it hard to find others who “understand” and fed up with one’s peers idiocy, the temptation to brand oneself in an attempt to form bonds of common interest is obvious. Women also like a man in uniform, thus the same is true for Goths as sailors. However, as acceptable geeks approach 30 is the same motivation plausible? If so, it sounds relatively desperate. Alas, we are unable, as of yet, to find something that fills its place.

Geekin' about sport - Part 4

Finally, with the World Cup upon us tomorrow, it's time to take a peek at the final groups, G and H. The two favourites are in this one, and if one of them somehow comes second, we could have the final very early indeed.

Group G

We have a clear winner, a clear loser, and two maybes. For Africa's sake, let's hope one of football's big names doesn't make it through.


BRAZIL
High: 2126 (2009/09/09)
Low: 1975 (2007/06/27)
Biggest rise: 50 (Argentina 3-0 Neutral, Copa América, 2007/07/15)
Biggest fall: 60 (Mexico 0-2 Neutral, Copa América, 2007/06/27)

It almost seems like Brazil have sauntered into this World Cup as favourites without really putting up much of a sweat. Spain have been the side getting all the attention, but now Brazil are ahead of them in both Elo and FIFA rankings. They've been handed an average group with a couple of battling sides, but it will be extremely interesting if either Brazil or Spain fail to make top spot, as we'll be watching them face off in the 2nd round. The winner of that could win the whole shebang.


NORTH KOREA
High: 1553 (2008/09/10)
Low: 1474 (2007/12/26)
Biggest rise: 28 (Jordan 1-0 Away, WC Qualifier, 2008/02/06)
Biggest fall: 32 (Tajikistan 0-1 Neutral, Asian Challenge Cup, 2008/08/13)

With much bigger and much better sides in Asia at the moment, it was a big shock to see North Korea actually qualify this time round. Obviously, they're not expected to achieve much, especially in such a horrendous group. Achieving what their countrymen in 1966 did is a tall order.


CÔTE D'IVOIRE
High: 1854 (2008/02/03)
Low: 1707 (2008/09/07)
Biggest rise: 30 (Ghana 3-1 Neutral, CAF Africa Cup of Nations, 2010/01/15)
Biggest fall: 58 (Egypt 1-4 Neutral, CAF Africa Cup of Nations, 2008/02/07)

The Elephants have flattered to deceive in recent years. When they arrived in Germany, led by Didier Drogba (who, of course, is still an influential figure) they looked like they might upset the apple cart. That proved unfounded, but after a good 2008 Cup of Nations they've fallen away a bit, and the task of unseating either Brazil or Portugal could be too much. Then again, it's in Africa...


PORTUGAL
High: 1909 (2008/06/11)
Low: 1789 (2009/03/28)
Biggest rise: 42 (Czech Rep 3-1 Neutral, UEFA European Championships, 2008/06/11)
Biggest fall: 48 (Switzerland 0-2 Neutral, UEFA European Championships, 2008/06/15)

Perhaps the most disappointing side in recent years, they came runners-up at their own Euro 2004, then 4th place at the last World Cup. Clearly the generation after the Figo 'golden generation' were one of the best in their history, but they've really struggled recently. Their qualification campaign was awful, and it took a play-off against a very average side to get here. Can they escape the group? They should have just enough - but they'll need to get a move on if they want to progress much further.

Prediction: BRAZIL & PORTUGAL QUALIFY

Group H

The reigning European champions don't have the easiest draw, but it certainly should be no trouble for them, as they've brushed off much harder opposition before. The other three are relatively close, but we think we know the likely 2nd place candidate.


SPAIN
High: 2104
Low: 1857
Biggest rise: 34 (Denmark 3-1 Away, EC Qualifier, 2007/10/13)
Biggest fall: 64 (United States, 0-2 Neutral, Confederations Cup, 2009/06/24)

What a difference four years makes. Always everyone's dark horse, they now have the right to be one of the favourites after a masterful win at Euro 2008. They have quality in every position, and aside from that disastrous defeat to the Americans a year ago, they're one of the only teams to be constantly on the up since the last World Cup. Oh, they have group games first? Oh, don't worry about that.


SWITZERLAND
High: 1837 (2006/09/06)
Low: 1711 (2008/06/11)
Biggest rise: 48 (Portugal 2-0 Home, UEFA European Championships, 2008/06/15)
Biggest fall: 40 (Luxembourg 1-2 Home, WC Qualifier, 2008/09/10)

Ah, what a change. The Swiss may have been rather boring to watch in the World Cup, but they achieved two records: they didn't concede a goal or lose a match, but were still eliminated. Things haven't been much better since: they co-hosted Euro 2008 and didn't escape a very tough group, and mediocrity is starting to set in. First place is out here, and they've got a fight on their hands against perhaps the best Chile side in history, not to mention a tough Honduran team. They can't handle it.


HONDURAS
High: 1758 (2009/09/05)
Low: 1623 (2007/06/08)
Biggest rise: 38 (Mexico 2-1 Neutral, Concacaf Gold Cup, 2007/06/10)
Biggest fall: 42 (Guadeloupe 2-1 Neutral, Concacaf Gold Cup, 2007/06/17)

The Concacaf picture has been a little repetitive for the last few World Cups: USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, and if you're lucky, someone like T&T or Jamaica. Well, Honduras haven't been to the World Cup since 1982, and so most will write them off immediately. They're a tough side, though they're tactically inept. They've made great progress just to make the final, but in such a tough group (they may have benefited being in with South Africa instead) they've got a tall task ahead of them.


CHILE
High: 1864 (2010/06/09)
Low: 1681 (2006/08/16)
Biggest rise: 43 (Paraguay 2-0 Away, WC Qualifier, 2009/06/06)
Biggest fall: 41 (Paraguay 0-3 Home, WC Qualifier, 2007/11/21)

Talk about a change in form. Simply in terms of Elo rating, they've gone up from day one, and now have the highest Elo points total in their 100-year playing history. Pressure? Perhaps. After the tragic earthquake that rocked the country, a quarter-final, or even semi-final, for the national team would be the most likely fairytale to put your money on. They haven't even been to the World Cup in 12 years, but now their form suggests they're among the best. Let's see how it turns out.

Prediction: SPAIN & CHILE QUALIFY

Well, that's all folks. All we can do now is watch the group stage unfurl and see our wonderfully scientific predictions go completely tits up. Game on!

Geekin' about sport - Part 3

Part Three of our stat-tastic World Cup warm-up brings us to Groups E and F, both of them tough groups.

Group E

This is another tough group - for three teams. It's a battle of mediocrity as three average teams from three continents fight it out, while the Dutch walk on through to the next round. In theory, anyway.


NETHERLANDS
High: 2057 (2008/06/17)
Low: 1916 (2007/11/21)
Biggest rise: 52 (Italy 3-0 Neutral, UEFA European Championships, 2008/06/09)
Biggest fall: 60 (Russia 1-3 Neutral, UEFA European Championships, 2008/06/21)

The Dutch must've been pinching themselves after drawing such a poor group of opponents: they have no excuses for not progressing here. Euro 2008 was very eventful, as they tore Italy and France to shreds, only to be outplayed by the Russians. They've had two years to regroup, and at current form they should be aiming for the semi-finals.


DENMARK
High: 1896 (2006/09/06)
Low: 1743 (2010/06/05)
Biggest rise: 29 (Portugal 3-2 Away, WC Qualifier, 2008/09/10)
Biggest fall: 35 (Hungary 0-1 Home, WC Qualifier, 2009/10/14)

It's been a bad four years for the Danes. They were unlucky to miss out on the last World Cup after getting a tough qualifying group, but nothing's gone right since then. They failed to qualify for Euro 2008 (though one of their fans didn't exactly help matters) and they arguably got to this World Cup thanks to Portugal's even worse dip in form. Now they're in a group with two other teams going through similar bad runs, so although the last sixteen is a possibility, don't expect much more.


JAPAN
High: 1788 (2009/06/06)
Low: 1674 (2010/06/04)
Biggest rise: 27 (Egypt 4-1 Home, Afro-Asian Championship, 2007/10/17)
Biggest fall: 44 (South Korea 1-3 Home, East Asian Championship, 2010/02/14)

What can you say about Japan? After a poor World Cup in an admittedly tough group, they seemed to be making progress, though a lot of their good results were in friendly tournaments, and their qualifying was not the most challenging around. They come into the tournament having lost four consecutive friendlies: whatever you say about the merits of exhibition matches, that's not good preparation.


CAMEROON
High: 1785 (2008/02/07)
Low: 1685 (2008/01/22)
Biggest rise: 35 (Zambia 5-1 Neutral, CAF Africa Cup of Nations, 2008/01/26 & Ghana 1-0 Away, CAF Africa Cup of Nations, 2008/02/07)
Biggest fall: 43 (Egypt 2-4 Neutral, CAF Africa Cup of Nations, 2008/01/22 & Gabon 0-1 Neutral, CAF Africa Cup of Nations, 2010/01/13)

It's hard to know what to make of Cameroon. They walked into the 2008 Africa Cup of Nations in bad shape, but left as runners-up to Egypt. They walked into the 2010 edition as one of the favourites, but lost to Gabon, scraped through on goal difference before Egypt (again) put them away. Once again, they've hit a real low coming into this tournament. Which Cameroon will turn up in South Africa?

Prediction: NETHERLANDS & CAMEROON QUALIFY

Group F

This group is interesting, in that the four teams seem quite evenly apart in their rating going into the tournament. As a result, it shouldn't be so difficult to figure out who will go through.


ITALY
High: 2023 (2006/09/02)
Low: 1909 (2009/08/12 & 2010/06/05)
Biggest rise: 36 (France 2-0 Neutral, UEFA European Championships, 2008/06/17)
Biggest fall: 52 (Netherlands 0-3 Neutral, UEFA European Championship, 2008/06/09)

It's hard to match winning the World Cup, but momentum has certainly not been with the Azzurri. A fair performance at Euro 2008 was followed by a comfortable qualifying campaign and a poor Confederations Cup. Even if you take the latter tournament out of the equation, this is not the Italy of four years ago. Semi-finals would be a great achievement.


PARAGUAY
High: 1841 (2009/02/11)
Low: 1721 (2007/06/02)
Biggest rise: 60 (Colombia 5-0 Neutral, Copa América, 2007/06/28)
Biggest fall: 48 (Mexico 0-6 Neutral, Copa América, 2007/07/08)

They faltered last time round, but they've been doing pretty well since then. A lively qualifying campaign saw them finish just a point behind Brazil, taking 4 points off Argentina and beating Brazil in the process. Their biggest danger is form: they took 23 points from their first 10 games, but only 10 from their remaining 8. To add injury to insult, star player Salvador Cabañas was shot in the head in January. And you thought England had injury worries: this guy's lucky to be alive.


NEW ZEALAND
High: 1594 (2008/09/10)
Low: 1487 (2009/06/17)
Biggest rise: 28 (Fiji 2-0 Away, WC Qualifier, 2007/10/17)
Biggest fall: 43 (Fiji 0-2 Away, WC Qualifier, 2008/11/19)

Now, let's be perfectly honest, New Zealand were always going to be making up the numbers. They're the best team in Oceania now the Aussies have left, so their play-off with Bahrain was assured. Thing is, Bahrain are not that great either, so it was going to be tight between the two. A headed corner kick was all it took to take New Zealand to the finals in their only important tie of the campaign. Never mind getting out of the group: a point would be cheered back home.


SLOVAKIA
High: 1708 (2007/03/24)
Low: 1576 (2008/09/10 & 2009/03/28)
Biggest rise: 40 (Wales 5-1 Away, EC Qualifier, 2006/10/07)
Biggest fall: 55 (Wales 2-5 Home, EC Qualifier, 2007/09/12)

In their first major tournament as an independent nation, Slovakia have made up enough ground on their Czech neighbours that they've qualified instead of them. They topped their group, only losing (twice) to fellow qualifiers Slovenia. Nevertheless, the World Cup group stage is a real test for them, and this is no easy group. They'll be determined to beat Paraguay to 2nd place, and they can certainly do it.

Prediction: ITALY & PARAGUAY QUALIFY

Don't forget to come back tomorrow with the final part, Groups G and H.

Geekin' about sport - Part 2

We now continue our journey through the wonderful world of World Cup-related statistics to bring you the lowdown on Groups C and D. Of course, this is where England come in, but a real geek doesn't simply focus on his home team.

Group C


And so the hopes of a nation rest on Fab's plucky boys. It would certainly seem like this group is done and dusted before it's begun. After failing to get to Euro 2008, England have consistently risen under Capello, and aside from a slip against Ukraine have been near faultless against most teams. The USA will also be glad to be taking on two of the worst teams in the finals. So, job done - or is it?


ENGLAND
High: 1987 (2009/09/09)
Low: 1881 (2007/11/21 & 2008/03/26)
Biggest rise: 46 (Croatia 4-1 Away, WC Qualifier, 2008/09/10)
Biggest fall: 34 (Croatia 2-3 Away, EC Qualifier, 2006/10/11)

Simply looking at the graph shows the difference between Steve McClaren's time in charge compared with Fabio Capello's. The four matches against Croatia are symbols of that: two poor defeats followed by two crushing victories. England are back where they were four years ago - which means the quarter-finals, then. Oh well.


UNITED STATES
High: 1871 (2009/07/08)
Low: 1727 (2007/09/09)
Biggest rise: 64 (Spain 2-0 Neutral, Confederations Cup, 2009/06/24)
Biggest fall: 76 (Mexico 0-5 Home, Concacaf Gold Cup, 2009/07/26)

A year ago, after beating mighty Spain in the Confed Cup, the USA were at their highest Elo rating in their history. Then Mexico smashed them in the Concacaf Gold Cup final and they've been limping a little ever since. They've been lucky to get into a group containing two minnows - and England - and will almost certainly take 2nd place. Advancing to the quarter-finals, however, could be too much.


ALGERIA
High: 1585 (2010/01/24)
Low: 1389 (2007/09/09)
Biggest rise: 46 (Egypt 3-1 Home, WC Qualifier, 2009/06/07)
Biggest fall: 68 (Malawi 0-3 Neutral, CAF Africa Cup of Nations, 2010/01/11)

For all the excitement and romance of the two old foes fighting it out (both on and off the pitch, depending on who you believe), the cold fact is that Egypt are by far the best team in Africa, after winning their third consecutive Nations Cup. Yet, an amazing one-off play-off on neutral territory sent Algeria through. Fans of the underdog may rejoice, but a team ranked as bad as North Korea and New Zealand have taken a place at Africa's World Cup away from the team that could've done the continent proud. Shame.


SLOVENIA
High: 1655 (2010/06/04)
Low: 1502 (2008/02/06)
Biggest rise: 44 (Slovakia 2-0 Away, WC Qualifier, 2009/10/10)
Biggest fall: 25 (Belarus 2-4 Away, EC Qualifier, 2006/10/11)

What a qualifying campaign. After finishing Euro 2008 qualifying ahead of only Luxembourg, they've shot up and into the World Cup for the second time. Two key victories against Poland and Slovakia took them into the play-offs, before their unexpected victory over the Russians booked their place in South Africa. However, like their group opponents Algeria, one could argue that they've taken a place away from one of the highest-rated teams in the world, and the competition has suffered as a result. Your choice.

Prediction: ENGLAND AND USA QUALIFY

Group D

Finally, a group that isn't so predictable. We all know how good the Germans tend to be, and they're in such good form that they'll get out of the group. But Australia - after their first ever Asian qualifying campaign - and Serbia - here in yet another incarnation after the collapse of Yugoslavia - will be fighting hard to get through. We could easily write off Ghana, but 'home' advantage could give them a slight edge.


GERMANY
High: 1992 (2007/09/12)
Low: 1915 (2007/11/21)
Biggest rise: 23 (Russia 1-0 Away, WC Qualifier, 2009/10/10)
Biggest fall: 56 (Czech Rep 0-3 Home, EC Qualifier, 2007/10/17)

Once again, you can't write off the Germans. After a great 3rd place at their home World Cup, and a very successful Euro 2008 where they came runners-up to Spain, Germany have been on top of their game in the last four years. They shouldn't have much trouble in their group, and they should be aiming for at least the quarter-finals.


AUSTRALIA
High: 1797 (2006/09/06)
Low: 1679 (2007/07/13)
Biggest rise: 26 (Thailand 4-0 Away, AFC Asian Cup, 2007/07/16)
Biggest fall: 56 (Iraq 1-3 Neutral, AFC Asian Cup, 2007/07/13)

The Aussies are back again, and they have the advantage of facing Asian opposition on the way, instead of some of the worst teams in the world. They're in almost as good shape as when they started the last World Cup, after losing on penalties to Japan in the Asian Cup quarter-finals. Sadly for them, they've been dumped in a very tough group, but if they can sneak through, they could cause a shock.


SERBIA
High: 1833 (2010/04/07)
Low: 1694 (2008/09/10)
Biggest rise: 32 (Finland 2-0 Away, EC Qualifier, 2007/06/02)
Biggest fall: 34 (Kazakhstan 1-2 Away, EC Qualifier, 2007/03/24)

They lost all three games last time, but now, without Montenegro, they're back with a vengeance. Statistically, they're a much better team than four years ago, despite losing out on Euro 2008. After losing to France in their 2nd qualifying game, they never looked back, and won 6 of their remaining 8 games. As a result, we think that their form gives them the best chance of joining Germany in the last sixteen.


GHANA
High: 1798 (2008/02/03)
Low: 1646 (2010/01/15)
Biggest rise: 30 (Côte d'Ivoire 4-2 Home, CAF Africa Cup of Nations, 2008/02/09)
Biggest fall: 49 (Gabon 0-2 Away, WC Qualifier, 2008/06/14)

When they walked into the last World Cup, they were very lowly ranked, but a huge upset against the Czechs followed by beating the USA put them in the last 16. This time, they walk in with a much higher ranking, but nobody will be taking them lightly anymore. One of Africa's best, this tough group could be the end of them, but with Africa cheering them on, we could have another big upset on the cards.

Prediction: GERMANY & SERBIA QUALIFY

Come back tomorrow for our next instalment, featuring Groups E and F.

Geekin' about sport

Music geekery may be considered the most acceptable form of geekery, and beer geekery may be nearby, but sport geekery must surely be right up there. While a considerable amount of geeks - especially Unacceptable ones - have less interest in sport than they do in personal hygiene (and my word, that's saying something), there remains a healthy chunk of the geek domain that revel in the sporting world.

As much as the passion and athletic prowess is alluring to most, one of the primary reasons is statistics. Ever since the audience of Fantasy Football League chanted 'Statto, Statto' at Angus Loughran, the stat fan has been recognised, if not wholly appreciated. Some sports lend themselves to stat geekery more than others - cricket and baseball can be broken down into individual balls, and so the stats can get quite ridiculous sometimes (want to know how Pitcher A performs against right-handed batters, with one runner, in the last 3 innings, at nighttime? In baseball, you can find out - seriously).

Football, given its structure (90 minutes of flowing action) doesn't exactly lend itself to statistical analysis. Does that mean it can't be done? Of course not. Once upon a time, all that mattered about a player was how many goals he could score, but things have spiralled to the point that UEFA Champions League broadcasts tell us how far a subbed player has run (an AFC Champions League broadcast even further divided the running into 'Run', 'Jog' and 'Sprint'). Managers, too, use things like ProZone to figure out every aspect of a player's abilities - and don't think the players ignore it, either. Finally, the effect of games like Championship/Football Manager on the typical fan can't be underestimated.

Well, the World Cup is heading to South Africa on Friday, and stats are more accepted in the game than ever before. So it's time that we at the Acceptable Geek Club did our bit for the cause. Most of you probably don't know too much about all of the teams in the finals, so we've gone to the trouble of using the Elo Ratings system (an alternative to FIFA's official ranking - and, we think, more effective) to show you the relative strengths of all 32 teams going into the tournament.

Starting from the day after the last World Cup final, we've jotted down the Elo rating of each team as they've played each match. We then took this information and put it in a colourful graph for you to look at. Some teams have played more than others, so don't treat the four teams in each group as being chronologically matched on the graph. Nevertheless, it should give you a good idea of how things have progressed for all teams, and how they find themselves going into the tournament. We'll return to this at each of the ensuing rounds also, just to give you the statorific rundown as it happens.

Group A

We start with the hapless hosts, who have to cope with the likes of Mexico, Uruguay and France. You'll see a recurring theme here: three closely-matched teams in for a real fight, and a hopeless loser. Sadly, the Bafana Bafana are that loser.


SOUTH AFRICA
High: 1569 (2010/05/31)
Low: 1443 (2006/09/02)
Biggest rise: 31 (Zambia 1-0 Away, ACN Qualifier, 2006/10/08)
Biggest fall: 36 (Zambia 1-3 Home, ACN Qualifier, 2007/09/09)

You could argue that South Africa have risen slowly but surely since the end of the last World Cup (which, obviously, they didn't compete in) and are now in their best shape for a long time. However, this is a shadow of the team that qualified in 1998 and 2002, and despite their gradual rise, they're still a long way behind the rivals in their group, or any group: they're one of the lowest-ranked teams in the tournament. If there's a World Cup where the host nation don't get past the first round, this is it.


MEXICO
High: 1904 (2007/07/08)
Low: 1745 (2009/06/06 & 2009/07/09)
Biggest rise: 76 (USA 5-0 Away, Concacaf Gold Cup, 2009/07/26)
Biggest fall: 38 (Honduras 1-2 Neutral, Concacaf Gold Cup, 2007/06/10)

The perennial dark horses have had a very bumpy ride since losing to that Maxi Rodríguez goal in Germany, going from losing the Gold Cup final to the USA, to bashing Brazil in the Copa América just three days later. As the graph shows, they've gone from that heady height downwards, only to destroy the Americans at the following Gold Cup final. That one result may have skewed the graph a little as they are now rated higher than the rest of the group, but there's no doubt that they're as good as their two rivals.


URUGUAY
High: 1842 (2007/06/02)
Low: 1765 (2009/09/05)
Biggest rise: 40 (Venezuela 4-1 Away, Copa América, 2007/07/07)
Biggest fall: 69 (Peru 0-3 Neutral, Copa América, 2007/06/27)

Having missed out on the World Cup last time thanks to those plucky Aussies, Uruguay are in a group that they can escape - with some difficulty. In the four years since the last one, they haven't really changed much, which isn't too surprising as the only difference with qualification this time is that they didn't lose their intercontinental play-off, against Costa Rica. We'll just have to see how it goes.


FRANCE
High: 2066 (2006/09/06)
Low: 1835 (2010/06/04)
Biggest rise: 19 (Ireland 1-0 Away, WC Qualifier, 2009/11/14)
Biggest fall: 48 (Austria 1-3 Away, WC Qualifier, 2008/09/06)

Irish moaning aside, France have got their hands full this time (sorry). Unsurprisingly, they finished the last World Cup as the 2nd-ranked side under Elo ratings, but their fall since then has been catastrophic, with Raymond Domenech's survival in the job nothing short of miraculous. Their European Championship was awful (1 point, 1 goal, 6 conceded), and the fact that it took a play-off with a highly-dubious goal to send them to South Africa says all you need to know. They're now at their lowest Elo rating since the 1980s - and that's a worry.

Prediction: MEXICO & URUGUAY QUALIFY

Group B

Once again, it's a tough group, but this time we have a clear favourite, with three others fighting for the other spot. Could be a very tight one.


ARGENTINA
High: 2058 (2007/07/11)
Low: 1846 (2009/09/09)
Biggest rise: 29 (Mexico 3-0 Neutral, Copa América, 2007/07/11)
Biggest fall: 69 (Bolivia 1-6 Away, WC Qualifier, 2009/04/01)

We've all seen and heard Diego's foul-mouthed reign as Argentina's bumbling boss, and it could very well have all gone tits up, but they hung on to qualify again. Given that they walked into the 2007 Copa América final as the highest-rated team in the world, their fall is rather dramatic. Still, in this group, they should get through. How much further, we cannot say.


NIGERIA
High: 1778 (2006/10/08)
Low: 1676 (2010/01/28)
Biggest rise: 17 (Algeria 1-0 Neutral, CAF Africa Cup of Nations, 2010/01/30)
Biggest fall: 42 (Egypt 1-3 Neutral, CAF Africa Cup of Nations, 2010/01/12)

Nigeria are one of Africa's hopes for the tournament, since we all know how much of a caning the hosts will receive. But Nigeria haven't been a good team for a long time, and have been getting progressively worse in the last four years (they didn't qualify last time round). The chance of escaping this group are slim, even with Africa on their side.


SOUTH KOREA
High: 1766 (2010/05/24)
Low: 1612 (2007/07/15)
Biggest rise: 44 (Japan 3-1 Away, East Asian Championship, 2010/02/14)
Biggest fall: 51 (China 0-3 Neutral, East Asian Championship, 2010/02/10)

They go into this year's tournament as the best team in Asia, but that's still only average compared to Europe and South America. They've made good progress since last time, and go into the group stage in good form, and as good as the team in 2002. Whether they can cope in Africa remains to be seen.


GREECE
High: 1838 (2008/05/19)
Low: 1711 (2010/06/02)
Biggest rise: 28 (Ukraine 1-0 Away, WC Qualifier, 2009/11/18)
Biggest fall: 45 (Turkey 1-4 Home, EC Qualifier, 2007/03/24)

The Greeks walk into this tournament in perhaps the worst shape since they famously lifted the European Championship back in 2004. After losing all three games in Euro 2008, they've been in freefall. They squeaked into the World Cup thanks to Ukraine's lack of bottle, and have a challenge to not finish bottom.

Prediction: ARGENTINA & SOUTH KOREA QUALIFY

That's all for today. Join us tomorrow for Groups C and D. Yes, that includes England.